Time Estimation and Responsibility
One of the important skills that a programmer should possess is the ability to estimate task completion times. Estimating work durations plays a key role in project planning, as well as ensuring the realism of goals and commitments to managers, colleagues, and users. However, there are often misunderstandings regarding the concepts of estimation and commitment, and their differences are not always clear. I have experienced both sides of this issue and know firsthand how harmful it can be to a project. Therefore, I decided to write this article to help programmers and managers understand this issue.
A Bit of Reflection
Estimation is the process of roughly determining the time, resources, cost, and other factors required to complete a specific task or project. It is based on the knowledge and experience of the programmer, as well as the analysis of the task’s requirements and complexity. Estimation involves expert judgment or speculation about the time needed to complete the work. It’s important to understand that estimation is always approximate and cannot be precisely predicted. It provides information on how much time may be required and helps in project planning.
Commitment, on the other hand, is a promise to complete a specific task within set deadlines or events. It is based on the programmer’s estimation and is a responsibility to stakeholders such as project managers, colleagues, and users. Commitment implies that the programmer takes responsibility for achieving the goals and completing the work on time. It’s important to note that commitment should always be based on a realistic estimate and take into account factors affecting task completion.
Furthermore, commitment should be based on estimation but not necessarily equal to it. For example, if the estimate for a task is 10 hours, the commitment could be 15 hours to account for potential delays and risks. This helps the programmer to handle the task within the deadline despite possible issues. Conversely, if the estimate is 10 hours and the commitment is 5 hours, it may lead to problems because the programmer may not be able to complete the work on time. In this case, the commitment does not match the estimate and fails to consider factors affecting task completion.
So What’s the Difference?
The difference between estimation and commitment lies in their nature and status. Estimation is preliminary and approximate, serving as a basis for planning and decision-making. Commitment, however, is a specific promise to complete the work at a certain time and to a certain level of quality. Commitment is based on estimation but entails taking responsibility and is more binding for the programmer.
Understanding the distinction between estimation and commitment is crucial for effective project management. Managers should take programmers’ estimates into account when planning and setting deadlines but also consider their approximate nature. Programmers, on their part, should be careful when estimating and committing, taking into account factors affecting their work and ensuring the realism of their commitments.
Ultimately, estimation and commitment are interconnected but have different characteristics. Estimation helps determine project feasibility and realism, while commitment is a promise to complete the work within a certain time. With this understanding, programmers and managers can better plan and manage projects, leading to more successful outcomes.
Theory and Practice
In practice, unfortunately, situations often arise where programmers fail to understand the difference between estimation and commitment and tend to overestimate the time required to complete a task. This may be due to various reasons, such as a desire to protect themselves from potential problems, lack of experience, or reluctance to take responsibility.
Another imbalance may occur when programmers inadvertently overcommit to meet managers’ and users’ expectations. This may stem from a desire to present themselves in a favorable light, again, from lack of experience, or reluctance to admit lack of knowledge or inability to meet deadlines.
In any case, incorrect planning can lead to serious project problems, such as missed deadlines, programmer overload, manager and user dissatisfaction, and loss of trust in programmers.
Therefore, it is very important to maintain transparency and openness within the team so that programmers can honestly estimate their work, and managers can trust them and consider their estimates when planning the project. It’s also important for programmers not to be afraid to take responsibility and fulfill their commitments on time. Only in this way can project success be achieved and a quality product created.
Task Time Estimation
Task time estimation is the process of determining the time needed to complete a task. It is based on the programmer’s knowledge and experience, as well as an analysis of the task and its components. Task time estimation is an important part of project planning and helps determine realistic completion times.
Expert Judgment Method
One method of task time estimation is the expert judgment method. It is based on the programmer’s knowledge and experience and allows them to determine the time needed to complete the task. To do this, the programmer must answer the following questions:
- What tasks need to be completed?
- What resources will be required?
- What problems and risks may arise?
- What solutions can be adopted to mitigate risks and solve problems?
Answers to these questions will help the programmer determine the time required to complete the task. This method enables the programmer to estimate the time needed to complete the task based on their experience and knowledge.
If the task has no analogs, the programmer can use the comparison method. It is based on comparing the task to other tasks that have already been completed.
If the task is sufficiently large and complex, the programmer can use the decomposition method. It involves breaking the task down into smaller parts and estimating the time required to complete each part.
Three-Scenario Method
For more uncertain tasks with vague requirements, I recommend using the three-scenario method. It allows determining the time needed to complete the task based on three scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic. To do this, the programmer must answer the following questions:
- What is the best possible outcome?
- What outcome can realistically be achieved?
- What is the worst-case scenario?
Next, we add the time needed for the minimum and maximum scenarios, and multiply the most realistic value by 4. The result is divided by 6 to obtain an estimate of the time needed to complete the task.
I use this method in practice for planning uncertain tasks and projects because it allows for considering various uncertain scenarios and risks, as well as determining more realistic completion times. This helps me plan and manage the team. Besides the technical aspect, I also consider the human factor and strive to create a transparent and open atmosphere so that programmers can honestly estimate their work, and managers can trust them and consider their estimates when planning the project.
“5 Whys” Method
As an additional method for breaking down tasks into components and understanding estimation, I use the “5 Whys” method. It helps me understand the motivation behind a particular estimate and what problems and risks may arise during task execution.
I ask the programmer the question “Why?” and receive an answer. Then I ask “Why?” again and get a new answer. I repeat this process 5 times until I get an answer that helps me understand the motivation behind the estimate and what problems and risks may arise during task execution.
The “5 Whys” method is a simple and versatile way to get to the root of a problem and find causes that are not immediately apparent. The idea of exploring cause-and-effect relationships originated with Socrates, but the specific method, known as the “5 Whys,” was developed by Sakichi Toyoda, the founder of Toyota. Initially, this method was used to solve production problems in the company.
Conclusion
In this article, I’ve explained how I estimate task completion time together with programmers. I hope this information will be useful for programmers and managers who want to improve their planning and team management skills. If you have any questions or suggestions, I’ll be happy to address them.